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The American Pain Foundation

Shortage of 200,000 doctors predicted in U.S. by 2020 Story List
November 3, 2004

NEW YORK (Reuters Health) - Over the next two decades, a shortage of 200,000 physicians could occur in the U.S. unless measures are taken to curb current economic and medical trends, according to a new report. Still, what should be done to remedy the problem remains unclear.

The report, which is authored by Dr. Richard A. Cooper, from the Medical College of Wisconsin in Milwaukee, appears in the November 2nd issue of the Annals of Internal Medicine.

For the last 2 decades, medical school and residency program policy decisions have been based on the premise that there would be an impending physician surplus, Dr. Cooper notes. Not only did this surplus never materialize, he adds, but there is increasing evidence that a shortage of clinicians is on the horizon.

Using a planning model that couples economic growth to health care spending and physician demand, Dr. Cooper was able to estimate the magnitude of a physician shortage or surplus in the coming decades.

His conclusion? There is a physician shortage that is just beginning now, but will likely increase dramatically in the next 20 years. By 2020, there could be a shortage of 200,000 doctors -- about 20% of the required workforce.

"The picture that emerges is uncomplicated and unambiguous. In simple numeric terms, the number of physicians is no longer keeping up with population growth," Dr. Cooper concludes.

In a related editorial Dr. Alan M. Garber, from the Stanford University School of Medicine in California, and Dr. Harold C. Sox, from the American College of Physicians in Philadelphia, write that "increasing the supply of physicians gradually, in small increments -- ones that would not require major new investments in capital or teaching personnel -- is a prudent strategy."

Ann Intern Med 2004;141:705-714,732-734.

Related Information Story List

Doctor shortage in Quebec a real numbers game. Pinker S - CMAJ - 6-AUG-2002; 167(3): 288
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Great expectations: the 21st century health workforce. Sheldon GF - Am J Surg - 01-JAN-2003; 185(1): 35-41
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The critical care crisis in the United States: A report from the profession Kelley, M - Crit Care Med - 2004 May; 32(5); 1219

The critical care medicine crisis: a call for federal action: a white paper from the critical care professional societies. Ewart GW - Chest - 01-APR-2004; 125(4): 1518-21
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The dermatology workforce shortage. Resneck J Jr - J Am Acad Dermatol - 01-JAN-2004; 50(1): 50-4
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MD shortage may reignite US recruiting in Canada - CMAJ - November 25, 2003; 169(11); 1198

What physician shortage? Wharry S - CMAJ - 9-JUL-2002; 167(1): 64
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